Evolution of the hottest tone and stability outloo

2022-08-25
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The evolution of adjustment and stability - 2013 steel market outlook

the steel industry can only record the impact results, and has entered the adjustment pattern. Structural adjustment and industrial upgrading have intensified the industry "reshuffle", and the situation is serious and cannot be underestimated; However, the expectation of China's economic stabilization in 2013 is increasing, and it will maintain an active fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. A new round of reform is imperative, and the urbanization process is deepening and advancing to the central and western regions; The international financial situation will tend to be stable, the foundation of U.S. economic recovery will gradually appear, and the European debt problem will be alleviated; Comprehensive evaluation shows that the overall domestic and foreign macro-economy will be stable and then change

under the game of gradually stabilizing macro level and vulnerable industries with overcapacity, the operation tone of the steel market will be the evolution of "tone" and "stability". The overall weak operation has a band market. It is estimated that the annual operation range of rebar is yuan/ton, and the average price is close to 3500 yuan/ton, so the probability of extreme market is small

main basis:

1. Global structural adjustment still needs to continue for a long time. Under the circumstance that the international economic situation is not clear, according to this estimate, China is faced with how to balance the relationship between steady growth, structural adjustment and reform. The proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy will continue next year, and structural tax cuts may be the focus of the policy. It is expected that in 2013, China's economy is expected to gradually achieve steady and moderate growth in the adjustment, but there is still a lot of pressure on exports, and it is still necessary to remain vigilant against the downside risks of the economy

2. Serious overcapacity is still the main obstacle restricting the development of China's steel industry. Low industry concentration and disordered competition make it difficult to regulate production capacity; On the other hand, with the sharp increase of steel production and the gradual saturation of domestic steel demand, steel production will enter an era of low growth in the next few years. Administrative regulation is difficult to achieve results, and market regulation will play an important role

3. Market demand will increase slightly. If the real estate regulation is not relaxed, the investment growth rate will decline slightly; Under the pattern of "steady growth", the momentum of infrastructure investment will increase, which will hedge the decline of real estate. Among them, the growth of investment in urban rail transit and roads is the main driving force, and railway investment may exceed expectations again; The development of new urbanization and industrialization will breed new growth points under regional transfer and mode transformation, which will stimulate the demand for steel

4. Social inventory will still run at a low level. The increasing difficulty in financing has led to the general tension in the professional production of Jinan new era Gold Testing Instrument Co., Ltd. of steel traders' capital surface spring experimental machine. At the same time, the downstream demand is weak and the market uncertainty is large. Traders' inventories are mainly fast in and fast out to reduce risks. In 2013, the social inventory of steel market will not return to the high level in mid February of 2012, which will be tested, and will generally operate at a low level, The "reservoir" effect of intermediate demand will be greatly weakened, and the fluctuation range of steel price will be narrowed

5. With the saturation of the production capacity of China's steel industry, the demand for iron ore will tend to be stable, which will be difficult to support the rise of ore prices or narrow the fluctuation range; And the weak pattern of coke market, which lacks bargaining power, is difficult to change. With the weakening of raw material prices, the production cost of steel products also gradually decreases, and the estimated cost of rebar is between yuan/ton

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